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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 1 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 26 – Arizona Cardinals 19

What Actually Happened

(2:14) 69-J.Nelson reported in as eligible. 25-T.Allgeier up the middle to ARI 39 for no gain (94-D.Tomlinson; 56-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +2.29 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.43 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -1.87 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model