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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 39

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(10:05) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 5-D.London INTERCEPTED by 29-D.Burke [97-W.Nolen] at ARI 29. 29-D.Burke ran ob at ARI 45 for 16 yards (63-C.Lindstrom; 71-E.Wilkinson).

The Three Options

GO +0.11 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.66 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.29 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 48, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model