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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 15 at the 31

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Arizona Cardinals 10

What Actually Happened

(2:22) 45-Z.Gonzalez 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-13-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.67 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 31, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.55 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 41, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model