Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 62

Cleveland Browns 10 – Buffalo Bills 20

(1:49) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 52 yards to BUF 10, Center-50-R.Sunahara. 16-M.Hardman pushed ob at BUF 14 for 4 yards (20-D.Ross).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.66 EP
72% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.17 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model