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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 62

Buffalo Bills 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 19-M.Wishnowsky punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.07 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 62, worth -3.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 21, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP