Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 4 at the 33
Buffalo Bills 23 – Cleveland Browns 17
What Actually Happened
(13:35) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 14-T.Shavers.
The Three Options
GO
+0.85 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.81 EP
- 53% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 33, worth -1.79 EP
KICK
+0.23 EP
- 69% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
- 31% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 43, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT
-0.41 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.41 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
