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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 23

Cleveland Browns 17 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(8:50) 25-A.Szmyt 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.71 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.05 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 23, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.33 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model