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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 2 at the 56

Cleveland Browns 20 – Buffalo Bills 23

What Actually Happened

(5:08) (Shotgun) 12-S.Sanders sacked at CLE 31 for -13 yards (50-G.Rousseau).

The Three Options

GO +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.16 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 56, worth -2.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 17, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model