Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q4
Buffalo Bills
4th & 1 at the 11
Buffalo Bills 23 – Cleveland Browns 20
What Actually Happened
(2:53) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 88-D.Knox.
The Three Options
GO
+3.20 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +4.92 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
KICK
+1.88 EP
- 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.97 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 22, worth -0.62 EP
PUNT
-0.33 EP
- Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
