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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 14 at the 15

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(14:07) 17-B.Aubrey 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +1.44 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.43 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.72 EP
PUNT +0.19 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model