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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 39

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:59) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep left to 3-G.Pickens to LAC 11 for 28 yards (20-C.Hart). DAL-56-C.Beebe was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +1.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.93 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.73 EP
KICK +0.38 EP
  • 64% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 36% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT +0.15 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model