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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 74

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(7:33) 16-J.Scott punts 55 yards to DAL 19, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 9-K.Turpin.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.88 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 74, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

PUNT -1.57 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 32, worth -1.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.05 EP