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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 16
Dallas Cowboys 17 – Los Angeles Chargers 24
What Actually Happened
(2:18) 40-H.Luepke up the middle to LAC 16 for no gain (91-D.Hand; 99-J.Caldwell).
The Three Options
GO
+3.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +5.05 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.55 EP
KICK
+1.61 EP
- 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 5% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -0.95 EP
PUNT
+0.03 EP
- Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
