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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 5 at the 8

Los Angeles Chargers 24 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(9:00) 11-C.Dicker 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-16-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 3, worth +6.07 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 8, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.56 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 21, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.30 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 11, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.77 EP