Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 71

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 0

(14:37) 6-A.Cole punts 52 yards to HOU 19, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-J.Noel to HOU 24 for 5 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).

The Three Options

GO -2.49 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.76 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 71, worth -4.36 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model