Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 58

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 10

(5:27) 6-A.Cole punts 47 yards to HOU 11, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.39 EP
57% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 58, worth -3.57 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model