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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Houston Texans 4th & 5 at the 32

Houston Texans 10 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

What Actually Happened

(:54) 15-K.Fairbairn 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +3.91 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.08 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 42, worth -1.54 EP
PUNT +0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model