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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 3 at the 62

Las Vegas Raiders 7 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(:25) 6-A.Cole punts 32 yards to HOU 30, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +0.87 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 62, worth -2.32 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.29 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model