Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 8 at the 68

Houston Texans 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 7

(13:24) 6-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to LV 12, Center-40-A.Brinkman. 81-A.Bachman to LV 15 for 3 yards (31-D.Clark).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.37 EP
60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model