4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 17 at the 78

Las Vegas Raiders 14 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(6:08) 6-A.Cole punts 31 yards to HOU 47, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -3.05 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.86 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.61 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model