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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 31

Houston Texans 13 – Las Vegas Raiders 14

What Actually Happened

(3:14) 15-K.Fairbairn 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-40-A.Brinkman, Holder-6-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +2.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.99 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 31, worth -1.24 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 80% chance to make a 48-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 20% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 41, worth -1.95 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.36 EP