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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 1 at the 66

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(8:17) 6-A.Cole punts 48 yards to HOU 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 14-J.Noel.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +0.86 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 66, worth -3.91 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 24, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EP