Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 61

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(3:25) 6-A.Cole punts 49 yards to HOU 12, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 14-J.Noel pushed ob at HOU 30 for 18 yards (46-C.Runyon). PENALTY on HOU-42-J.Ingram, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 26.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.76 EP
63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 61, worth -4.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model