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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 8 at the 18

New York Jets 3 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(12:41) 6-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara.

The Three Options

GO +0.92 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.19 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 18, worth -0.92 EP
KICK +1.17 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 28, worth -1.59 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model