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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 12 at the 47

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 6

What Actually Happened

(7:25) 14-A.McNamara punts 38 yards to NO 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 47, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.02 EP
  • 44% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.26 EP
  • 56% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 13, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model