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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 19 at the 63

New York Jets 6 – New Orleans Saints 9

What Actually Happened

(1:01) 14-A.McNamara punts 54 yards to NO 9, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 11-D.Pettis.

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.75 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 63, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.68 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 21, worth -0.68 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model