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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New Orleans Saints 4th & 10 at the 43

New Orleans Saints 9 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(:03) 39-C.Smyth 61 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.58 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +2.22 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -0.18 EP
KICK +1.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 45% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model