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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New Orleans Saints 4th & 13 at the 76

New Orleans Saints 9 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(10:08) 32-K.Kroeger punts 46 yards to NYJ 30, Center-49-Z.Wood, downed by NO-43-M.Davis.

The Three Options

GO -2.35 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +2.02 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.35 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model