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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 8 at the 32

New Orleans Saints 16 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(11:14) 39-C.Smyth 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.39 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.87 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.66 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 42, worth -2.08 EP
PUNT -0.25 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model