4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 11 at the 21

New Orleans Saints 19 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(5:22) 39-C.Smyth 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-Z.Wood, Holder-32-K.Kroeger.

The Three Options

GO +1.11 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.09 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.42 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 92% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -1.14 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model