Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 5 at the 65

New York Jets 3 – New Orleans Saints 3

What Actually Happened

(3:28) 14-A.McNamara punts 51 yards to NO 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 11-D.Pettis ran ob at NO 24 for 10 yards (25-J.Monroe). PENALTY on NYJ-43-C.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NO 24.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP

43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.78 EP
57% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model