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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 4 at the 4

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:13) 33-T.Loop 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +2.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.20 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 4, worth -0.11 EP
KICK +1.21 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.24 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21, worth -1.20 EP
PUNT -0.57 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.57 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP