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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 9 at the 16

Baltimore Ravens 17 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:39) 33-T.Loop 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-11-J.Stout.

The Three Options

GO +1.13 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.26 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.41 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.29 EP
PUNT -0.54 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model