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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 6

Green Bay Packers 14 – Baltimore Ravens 27

What Actually Happened

(9:13) 17-B.McManus 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.71 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 6, worth +0.25 EP
KICK +1.71 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.55 EP