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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 8 at the 50

Green Bay Packers 24 – Baltimore Ravens 41

What Actually Happened

(:32) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 6-C.Tune pass incomplete short left to 0-M.Golden.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
What Happened
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +1.19 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 50, worth -0.37 EP
KICK +0.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 28% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.80 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.31 EP