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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
Dallas Cowboys
4th & 1 at the 10
Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 3
What Actually Happened
(12:49) 33-J.Williams up the middle to WAS 9 for 1 yard (6-N.Igbinoghene).
The Three Options
GO
+3.61 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.15 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 10, worth +0.13 EP
KICK
+1.53 EP
- 97% chance to make a 27-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.60 EP
- 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT
+0.02 EP
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
