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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 56

Dallas Cowboys 0 – Washington Commanders 0

What Actually Happened

(13:08) (Shotgun) 33-J.Williams right guard to DAL 48 for 4 yards (99-J.Kinlaw).

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.09 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 17, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model