Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 18 at the 91

Dallas Cowboys 24 – Washington Commanders 10

What Actually Happened

(9:53) 5-B.Anger punts 53 yards to WAS 38, Center-44-T.Sieg. 88-R.Cracraft to WAS 40 for 2 yards (29-C.Goodwin). PENALTY on WAS-18-T.Owens, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at WAS 38.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 91, worth -5.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model