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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 7 at the 40

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(13:36) 17-B.Aubrey 58 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.44 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 40, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
What Happened
  • 57% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.38 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.78 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP