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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 55

Dallas Cowboys 27 – Washington Commanders 20

What Actually Happened

(6:31) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert pushed ob at WAS 48 for 7 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.16 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 55, worth -2.51 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.74 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 16, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model