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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 1 at the 34

Dallas Cowboys 30 – Washington Commanders 23

What Actually Happened

(:10) 4-D.Prescott up the middle to WAS 31 for 3 yards (96-J.Holmes; 54-B.Wagner).

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
What Happened
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +1.00 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 34, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 44, worth -0.18 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.36 EP