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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 2 at the 23

Dallas Cowboys 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(14:54) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert to WAS 19 for 4 yards (0-M.Sainristil).

The Three Options

GO +2.24 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.27 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 23, worth -0.83 EP
KICK +1.24 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 33, worth -1.64 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model