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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 3 at the 62

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(8:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 62 yards to end zone, Center-41-J.Winchester, Touchback. PENALTY on DEN-31-K.Abrams-Draine, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DEN 20.

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.25 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 62, worth -3.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.92 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP