Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 11 at the 69

Denver Broncos 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 10

(11:14) 16-J.Crawshaw punts 58 yards to KC 11, Center-48-M.Fraboni. 24-B.Smith to DEN 45 for 44 yards (92-D.Tillman).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.72 EP
65% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 69, worth -3.84 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (86 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model