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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 59

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 14-M.Araiza punts 48 yards to DEN 11, Center-41-J.Winchester. 19-M.Mims to DEN 19 for 8 yards (48-C.Christiansen; 34-M.Edwards).

The Three Options

GO -0.78 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.02 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.46 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model