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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 6 at the 40

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(4:23) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 87-M.Mayer to NYG 21 for 19 yards (24-D.Belton). NYG-51-A.Carter was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.67 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 40, worth -1.95 EP
KICK +0.06 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model