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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 2 at the 13

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(2:28) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 10-D.Thornton to NYG 6 for 7 yards (22-A.Phillips; 33-D.Flannigan-Fowles).

The Three Options

GO +2.69 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.14 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 13, worth -0.14 EP
KICK +1.65 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 23, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT +0.03 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model