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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 4 at the 4

Las Vegas Raiders 3 – New York Giants 20

What Actually Happened

(:36) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 17-T.Lockett for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.61 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.74 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: New York Giants takes over around their own 4, worth +0.46 EP
KICK +1.75 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Giants takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: New York Giants takes over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP
PUNT +0.09 EP
  • New York Giants would take over around their own 11, worth +0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model