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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 6 at the 47

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(8:38) 3-C.Waitman punts 31 yards to CLE 16, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-40-J.Peppers.

The Three Options

GO -0.54 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.83 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 47, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -1.59 EP
  • 32% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 68% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -2.90 EP
PUNT -0.89 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 13, worth -0.89 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.35 EP