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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 32

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(10:52) 25-A.Szmyt 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.79 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.58 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 32, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +0.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.03 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.85 EP
PUNT +0.32 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model